Republicans Facing ‘Generational Wipeout’ in Texas

Texas Republicans are facing an unusually competitive election season as two new polls show Democrats running neck-and-neck with GOP candidates in several of the state’s biggest races.

The numbers landed just days after Republicans wrapped up their national midterm convention in Dallas, where party leaders hoped to energize voters heading into the final stretch before the November election.

One new ReconMR/Siena College survey produced particularly eye-catching results.

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico led Republican Ken Paxton 49 percent to 43 percent in the U.S. Senate race, while Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa led Republican Gov. Greg Abbott 49 percent to 45 percent.

The poll surveyed 614 likely Texas voters from September 8 through September 11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.3 percentage points.

Political reporter Jacob Rubashkin called the results “absolutely brutal for Republicans” on X and said they could amount to a “generational wipeout” if the numbers were ultimately reflected at the ballot box.

But another survey released at virtually the same time paints a less dramatic picture.

An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey of 1,000 likely voters found Talarico ahead of Paxton by just one point, 47 percent to 46 percent. Abbott, meanwhile, led Hinojosa 49 percent to 46 percent.

That poll was conducted September 12 through September 14 and had a credibility interval of plus or minus three percentage points.

Taken together, the surveys show competitive statewide races, but they do not establish that Republicans are headed for a sweeping defeat.

The contrast is especially striking in the governor’s contest. ReconMR/Siena had Hinojosa four points ahead of Abbott, while Emerson had Abbott three points ahead just days later.

The University of Texas Texas Politics Project’s polling tracker confirms both results, underscoring just how much uncertainty remains with weeks still left in the campaign.

The Senate race has also drawn national attention.

Emerson found Talarico with a 48 percent favorable rating and a 42 percent unfavorable rating. Paxton stood at 40 percent favorable and 48 percent unfavorable.

The economy was the biggest issue named by Texas voters in the Emerson survey, with 36 percent choosing it as their top concern. Immigration followed at 14 percent, education at 12 percent, and health care and threats to democracy each at 11 percent.

The competitiveness is notable because Texas Democrats have been locked out of statewide elected office for more than three decades.

No Democrat has won a statewide Texas election since 1994, while Republicans currently hold every statewide elected office.

That long-running streak makes the current polling unusual, even if the final outcome remains uncertain.

Republican strategist Matt Mackowiak told The Texas Tribune that GOP circles are confronting what could be one of the state’s most competitive statewide election environments in years.

The political pressure is arriving at the same time Texas Republicans are dealing with several highly public internal disputes.

One of the most visible centers on Bo French, the Republican nominee for the Texas Railroad Commission.

French faced widespread criticism after posting a photograph of South Asian students celebrating a University of Texas football victory and suggesting the image showed Americans being “displaced by foreigners.”

There was no evidence presented that the students pictured were foreigners.

The comments drew condemnation from Republicans including U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and several state lawmakers.

French later stood by his remarks during an appearance on conservative radio, arguing that many Republicans criticizing him were members of the party’s less-conservative wing.

The dispute became even more unusual when longtime Republican strategist Karl Rove said he planned to vote for French’s Democratic opponent, Jon Rosenthal.

Rove, who helped guide George W. Bush’s political rise, called French a “bigot” during a private Austin gathering, according to three attendees who spoke with The Texas Tribune. Rove said the vote would break roughly three decades in which he had supported Republican candidates.

The Railroad Commission race is particularly consequential in Texas because, despite its name, the agency no longer regulates railroads. It oversees the state’s enormous oil and gas industry, including drilling and pipeline regulation.

French’s controversy has also placed Republican divisions over rhetoric, immigration and the direction of the state party into the spotlight just before voters head to the polls.

Those divisions follow an already bruising Republican Senate primary in which Paxton defeated longtime Sen. John Cornyn.

Paxton’s candidacy has since attracted enormous outside spending. Republican groups have poured tens of millions of dollars into the Texas Senate contest as the race has tightened.

Still, one important warning applies to all of the current polling.

Polls are snapshots of voter opinion during a specific period, not predictions of the final result. The ReconMR/Siena and Emerson surveys were conducted using different samples and methodologies, and their differing results show why individual polls should be viewed alongside other surveys rather than in isolation.

Texas voters will make the final decision on November 3, 2026.

Early voting begins October 19 and runs through October 30, according to the Texas Secretary of State.

For Republicans, the immediate challenge is holding together a coalition that has dominated Texas statewide politics for decades while navigating voter concerns about the economy and several highly publicized intraparty fights.

For Democrats, the polling shows competitive opportunities that have been rare in modern Texas politics.

Whether those numbers survive the final weeks of campaigning remains an open question.