Trump Hit with Shock Poll Results in Crucial Race

President Donald Trump’s chosen candidate in the Texas Senate race is facing another disappointing setback, with a new poll showing Republican Ken Paxton trailing his Democratic opponent in what was once expected to be a reliably red contest.

Democratic state Rep. James Talarico leads Paxton 47% to 45% among likely voters, according to a survey conducted by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University.

The two-point difference falls within the poll’s 2.83-point margin of error, meaning the race remains extremely close. Still, it is the third recent survey to show Trump’s endorsed candidate running behind Talarico.

A recent Fox News poll placed Talarico ahead by three points, 51% to 48%, while another survey from Texas Public Opinion Research gave the Democrat an even larger five-point advantage, 45% to 40%.

The string of disappointing numbers is raising questions about Trump’s decision to back Paxton over longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn during the bitter GOP primary.

Paxton ultimately defeated Cornyn, but some Republicans feared the controversial attorney general would make the normally safe Texas seat far more competitive in the general election.

Now, those concerns appear to be gaining new urgency.

No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race in Texas since 1988. A Talarico victory would represent a stunning political upset and deliver a major blow to Trump and Republicans as they fight to maintain control of the Senate.

Paxton has remained a deeply polarizing figure despite winning statewide office multiple times.

He was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House in 2023 over accusations that included bribery, corruption and obstruction of justice, though the Texas Senate later acquitted him.

He has also faced years of legal and ethical controversies, while his wife filed for divorce in 2025 on what she described as “biblical grounds.”

The latest poll found that 57% of likely voters held an unfavorable opinion of Paxton, compared with 47% who viewed Talarico negatively.

Paxton is also struggling to match Trump’s previous strength among important groups of Texas voters.

The Republican leads Talarico among white likely voters by 14 points, 53% to 39%. However, Trump carried white Texas voters by a much wider 33-point margin in the 2024 presidential election.

The numbers are even more concerning for Republicans among Hispanic voters.

Trump reportedly won Hispanic voters in Texas by 10 points in 2024, but the latest poll shows Talarico leading Paxton among that group by 19 points, 57% to 38%.

Talarico seized on Paxton’s political baggage during an appearance on The Rachel Maddow Show.

“I didn’t think it was possible to find a candidate worse than Ted Cruz, but I think we found him in Ken Paxton,” Talarico said.

“This is the most corrupt politician in our state, one of the most corrupt in the entire country,” he added.

Talarico noted that Paxton had been impeached by members of his own party and reported to the FBI by former members of his staff.

“His own defense attorney just endorsed me in this race,” Talarico said. “I’m kind of expecting his family dog to run away and head over to my house any day now.”

Paxton’s campaign dismissed the unfavorable polling and insisted Texas voters would reject Talarico once they learned more about his record.

“The only poll that matters” is the November 3 election, senior Paxton adviser Nick Maddux said.

Maddux accused Talarico of supporting reparations, opposing restrictions on gender-transition procedures for minors, threatening the oil and gas industry and backing major tax increases.

“Talarico’s campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas: a pipe dream,” Maddux said.

Republican strategists still have reasons for optimism. Paxton has won statewide office three times, and Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide in decades.

However, three consecutive polls showing Trump’s preferred candidate behind represent an unmistakable warning sign for the president and the GOP.

With control of the Senate potentially hanging in the balance, Trump’s high-profile endorsement could prove to be either a decisive victory—or one of the most damaging political miscalculations of the midterm elections.