Bombshell Poll is Brutal Wake-Up Call for Trump

Donald Trump’s handpicked Senate candidate in Texas may be in far more trouble than Republicans want to admit.

A new New York Times/Siena poll shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Trump’s scandal-plagued ally, locked in a dead heat with Democrat James Talarico in what was supposed to be a safely Republican Senate race.

The survey found Paxton and Talarico tied at 47 percent among likely Texas voters, a stunning warning sign for the GOP as Democrats look for a path to retake the Senate in November.

For Republicans, this is the kind of poll that can cause panic behind closed doors. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, but Paxton’s long list of controversies appears to be giving Democrats a rare opening in the Lone Star State.

And it is not just the topline number that should worry Trump’s party.

According to the poll, voters are raising serious questions about Paxton’s character, values and ability to win over the middle. Only 38 percent of likely Texas voters said Paxton has “good character,” compared with 56 percent who said the same of Talarico.

That is a brutal number for a Republican running in a state his party has counted on for decades.

Paxton won the GOP nomination after Trump backed him over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, turning the primary into an expensive, bitter Republican civil war. But the moment Paxton emerged as the nominee, some Republicans feared the party had just turned a safe seat into a national headache.

Now, those fears look very real.

Paxton has been followed for years by a cloud of scandal. He was impeached by Texas Republicans over allegations involving fraud and obstruction of justice, faced long-running corruption accusations, and has dealt with personal controversy after his wife filed for divorce last year on “biblical grounds.”

He has also drawn attention for appearing publicly with Christian influencer Tracy Duhon, who has been described as his alleged mistress.

For Democrats, the contrast writes itself. Talarico is trying to make the race about affordability, safety, groceries and the everyday pressures families are feeling. Paxton, meanwhile, is being painted by critics as a culture-war candidate weighed down by personal baggage and political drama.

That message may already be landing.

The poll found that 50 percent of respondents described Paxton as “too extreme,” compared with 43 percent who said the same of Talarico. When voters were asked which candidate has the “right kind of moral values,” 51 percent chose Talarico, while just 39 percent picked Paxton.

Those numbers are especially damaging in a race where Republicans usually rely on Texas voters falling in line by Election Day.

Even more alarming for Paxton, Talarico appears to have room to grow. Among independent voters who are not already backing the Democrat, 23 percent said they were open to supporting him. Only 7 percent said the same about Paxton.

The poll also found that 9 percent of Texans who voted for Trump in 2024 now support Talarico, while just 1 percent of Kamala Harris voters said they back Paxton.

That is exactly the kind of crossover warning sign that can turn a red-state race into a national political earthquake.

One independent voter, 34-year-old Melissa Daniels, told The New York Times that Talarico is focused on the issues people actually talk about around the kitchen table.

“I think he’s focusing on the common issues that people have,” Daniels said. “We want to feel safe. We want to be able to afford groceries and, you know, those issues that we care about.”

Then she took aim at Paxton’s priorities.

“Paxton’s focused on, you know, IVF and who’s using what bathroom,” she said. “Just stuff that isn’t really affecting the day-to-day lives of Americans.”

For Trump, the Texas race is quickly becoming more than just another Senate contest. It is a test of whether his endorsement can still drag a controversial candidate across the finish line in a state Republicans cannot afford to lose.

If Talarico pulls off the upset, it would be a political shockwave. It could help Democrats in their fight for Senate control and prove that even deep-red Texas is not immune to backlash against Trump-era politics.

For now, Paxton is not losing.

But in Texas, tied may be scary enough.