President Donald Trump is facing fresh scrutiny after declaring victory for a Republican senator in Alaska’s razor-thin election, even though the Democrat in the race is leading the official vote count and thousands of ballots remain uncounted.
Trump insisted Saturday that Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan had already defeated Democratic challenger Mary Peltola, arguing that votes cast for two other candidates should effectively be added to the incumbent’s total.
But Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system doesn’t work that way, and election officials have yet to determine a winner.
According to the latest available unofficial results, Peltola leads Sullivan by just 637 votes, with 102,962 votes to the Republican’s 102,325. That puts Peltola at 48.17% and Sullivan at 47.88%, with roughly 74% of the expected vote reported. ABC News+1
Despite the narrow Democratic lead, Trump took to Truth Social on November 7 to declare the race finished.
“Daniel Sullivan is leading substantially in the Alaska Senatorial Race,” Trump wrote, arguing that the votes received by two other candidates should be combined with the Republican incumbent’s total.
Those candidates are Gerald Heikes, a Republican who has received 4,846 votes, and Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a candidate unaffiliated with a political party who has received 3,600 votes.
Trump’s calculation would give the incumbent a comfortable advantage over Peltola. However, it assumes all 8,446 of those votes belong to the Republican senator, regardless of the voters’ actual preferences.
Alaska voters can rank candidates in order of preference. If no candidate wins a majority of first-choice votes, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and ballots are transferred according to each voter’s next eligible choice.
Some votes could ultimately benefit Sullivan, while others could go to Peltola or become inactive if voters did not rank a remaining candidate. The votes cannot simply be awarded to Sullivan because Trump believes those voters intended to support him.
The president nevertheless insisted the outcome was settled.
“I don’t know what takes so long to announce his win. This should be immediate!” Trump wrote.
He then went further, declaring, “The Alaska Race is OVER. Dan Sullivan WON, BY A LOT!”
The extraordinary declaration came as Alaska election officials continued processing ballots from the November 3 midterm election. The state accepts eligible mail ballots after Election Day and has scheduled its official ranked-choice tabulation for November 18.
The controversy has also drawn attention to Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired teacher who shares a name with the incumbent senator. Republicans have raised questions about his candidacy and whether voters could have confused the two men.
Trump suggested votes for the lesser-known Sullivan should count toward the incumbent’s total, but sharing a name does not establish how those voters would rank the candidates.
The president’s claims have added another layer of political tension to an election that could have significant consequences in Washington.
Peltola, a former congresswoman, is attempting to unseat Sullivan in a closely watched Senate contest. Her narrow first-choice lead provides an early advantage, but it does not guarantee victory under Alaska’s election rules.
Preliminary analyses of ranked-choice ballot data suggest Sullivan could gain ground when lower-ranked candidates are eliminated, although those projections do not account for every outstanding ballot and are not official election results.
For now, neither candidate has secured the seat. Alaska’s scheduled tabulation will help determine who ultimately wins, regardless of the president’s premature victory declaration.
One important detail makes this story stronger: the Trump administration had already filed a lawsuit over the second Sullivan’s candidacy, seeking to block certification under certain circumstances. A judge dismissed the case, and the Justice Department appealed. That gives the controversy a concrete legal dimension beyond Trump’s social media statements. The Washington Post+1
For a more dramatic headline that remains defensible, I’d recommend:
Trump Declares Republican Victory in Alaska Despite Democrat Leading as Election Chaos Deepens
Other strong options include:
- Trump Claims GOP Won Alaska Senate Race Before All Votes Are Counted
- Trump Declares Alaska Senate Race ‘OVER’ Despite Democrat Leading
- Trump Demands GOP Victory in Alaska as Democrat Clings to Narrow Lead
My choice is the second headline. It’s sharp, attention-grabbing, supported by Trump’s actual remarks, and avoids implying that election fraud or wrongdoing has been established.
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