Hispanic Voters are Turning on Trump

Donald Trump’s second term is unraveling with Hispanic voters — and new polls reveal the backlash could reshape the 2026 midterms.

Once a surprising bright spot for Trump’s GOP coalition, Hispanic voter support is collapsing.

A Reuters poll released this week shows just 32% of Hispanic respondents approve of Trump’s job performance — his lowest mark since returning to the White House. Similarly, a YouGov/Economist survey found approval sinking to 28%, with 68% disapproving. That’s a stunning reversal from July’s numbers, when 35% of Hispanic voters still backed the president.

“Month by month, his standing is sliding,” said Daniel Rivera, a senior pollster at SoCal Strategies. “He’s hemorrhaging support in Arizona, Nevada, and Texas — states where even a two-point shift could decide elections.”

At the heart of the backlash is Trump’s second-term immigration agenda, which Hispanic leaders call “chaotic” and “abusive.”

Since January, Trump has launched mass deportation sweeps, expanded ICE detention facilities, and revived birthright citizenship challenges. A sprawling Florida detention site — nicknamed “Alligator Alcatraz” by activists — has become a flashpoint for protests.

“People are terrified,” said Clarissa Martínez de Castro, vice president of the UnidosUS Latino Vote Initiative. “Trump promised to target criminals, but what communities are seeing are parents being arrested dropping their kids at school, workers detained during routine ICE check-ins, and sanctuary cities turned into militarized zones.”

Polling reflects this fear: 42% of Hispanic adults say they worry that they or someone close to them could be deported — nearly double the national average.

Beyond immigration, Trump’s policies are shaking the economic stability of Hispanic communities.

Heightened deportation fears are discouraging consumer spending. Constellation Brands, the maker of Modelo beer, recently slashed growth forecasts in Texas and California. Retailers like Walmart and Shoe Carnival also report sharp drops in low-income Hispanic spending.

“People are avoiding shopping centers, schools, even hospitals,” said Laura Santos, an economist at UC Berkeley. “The fear factor is freezing everyday life.”

Meanwhile, inflation continues to rise despite Trump’s 2024 campaign promise to “end it on day one.” In June, prices climbed 2.7%, and job growth slowed by nearly half in July, according to federal labor data.

Hispanic households, which earn a median income of about $65,500 — compared with $93,900 for white households — are disproportionately exposed to inflation, job insecurity, and disruptions in construction, service, and manufacturing sectors where they represent a significant share of the workforce.

Democrats see opportunity. Historically, Hispanic voters have leaned blue — 71% supported Obama in 2012, 66% backed Hillary Clinton in 2016, and 63% went for Biden in 2020.

Trump’s 2024 performance marked a Republican high-water mark at 43%, but new polling suggests those gains may be evaporating.

“Latinos turned out for him because they believed he could deliver economic growth and order,” said Martínez. “Instead, they’re seeing chaos, intimidation, and broken promises.”

Even among Hispanics who give Trump some credit for the economy — approval ticked up slightly to 35% in August — immigration policies remain a deal-breaker. In one survey, 61% described Trump’s approach as “too harsh,” while 65% supported automatic citizenship for children of undocumented immigrants, directly opposing the president’s executive order targeting birthright citizenship.

With control of Congress hanging in the balance, Democrats are ramping up outreach to Hispanic voters ahead of 2026. Meanwhile, Republicans are split — some urging Trump to soften his rhetoric, others demanding an even harder line.

The stakes couldn’t be higher. Hispanic Americans account for 19% of the U.S. population and represent the fastest-growing voting bloc in the country. In states like Arizona, Nevada, and Florida, even modest shifts could decide Senate control — and set the stage for the 2028 presidential race.

For now, the message from Hispanic voters is clear: Trump’s crackdown is costing him — and his party — dearly.